Our current Mayor has risen nearly $4M in campaign contributions and his “Green Machine” are known for their signs and relentless door knocking campaign. At this moment it is clear that he is the front runner in this race. However, will money be enough to scare off any potential competitive challengers? Maybe.
However for all the money raised from the rich, powerful, celebrity and DC Government types, the mayor is very unpopular. In politics popularity is all that matters (ask Marion Barry). Mayor Fenty loves to use the term “big-city mayor” and talk about other mayors such as his mayoral crush, Michael Bloomberg. I hope he watched very closely what happened in NYC during the 2009 mayoral election, because it could happen to him. Bloomberg barely escaped Comptroller Bill Thompson by a margin of 4.4%, after spending over $85M of his own money.
Hypothetically a popular East of the River politician could give him a run for his money if they managed to raise enough funds to maintain a healthy campaign operation. He would no doubt do very well within Ward 3 (where Carol Schwartz beat Kwame Brown). With Wards 3, 7, & 8 already decided and Wards like 5 & 6 leaning in one direction or another, the battle lines are clear.
Overall I don’t believe $3.9M (or $10M) is enough to overcome 49% disapproval ratings city wide and 65% disapproval among African-Americans*, but without a notable challenger, it’s more than enough.
Election Rating: Favorite
Monday, March 15, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
$3.9M and change
I should start by saying that I am an adamant believer that money isn’t everything in regards to local politics. However, after seeing that figure and Mayor Fenty’s impressive contribution haul of $327,306 I was taken a back momentarily. With such a large war chest, and consistent monthly contributions the mayor has effectively created very high barriers to entry for most would be candidates. As a result, all of the candidates who have declared to date cannot possibly stand a chance.
As a relatively political entity, candidates must spend a great deal of funds on getting name recognition and legitimacy. This means they need websites, advertising, pulpits in which they can give speeches, and staff! Any political newcomer needs at least a few consultants who know the political landscape and people of interest. Those types of people don’t come cheap; all you have to do is look at how much money was going to individuals in the 2006 mayoral election! Lastly, it’s the “chicken or the egg” conundrum of getting media coverage by showing you can raise money vs. raising money because you’ve been receiving media coverage.
Having talked about the difficulty of a political newcomer with no money, I want it to be known that even with $3.9M and counting in contributions he can still lose. All it takes is a self financed candidate or an established elected official who can raise enough to be competitive. Campaigns are won and loss by the volunteers on the ground, knocking on doors and attending events every day.
In the next few entries I will detail each candidate’s (potential and declared) road map to victory and some of the pitfalls they may encounter.
As a relatively political entity, candidates must spend a great deal of funds on getting name recognition and legitimacy. This means they need websites, advertising, pulpits in which they can give speeches, and staff! Any political newcomer needs at least a few consultants who know the political landscape and people of interest. Those types of people don’t come cheap; all you have to do is look at how much money was going to individuals in the 2006 mayoral election! Lastly, it’s the “chicken or the egg” conundrum of getting media coverage by showing you can raise money vs. raising money because you’ve been receiving media coverage.
Having talked about the difficulty of a political newcomer with no money, I want it to be known that even with $3.9M and counting in contributions he can still lose. All it takes is a self financed candidate or an established elected official who can raise enough to be competitive. Campaigns are won and loss by the volunteers on the ground, knocking on doors and attending events every day.
In the next few entries I will detail each candidate’s (potential and declared) road map to victory and some of the pitfalls they may encounter.
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